There are two wars going on in the United Sates right now.
The Big War is the war to get rid of Trump. It’s pretty much leaderless and going nowhere while the House and Senate are in Republican hands AND Trump’s job approval numbers are above 30%. His numbers have been as low as 33% a couple of times. If they get down around 25%…and stay there for a while…Impeachment and Removal are possible.
The Little War is, so far, a propaganda war to lay the foundation for a “preemptive” strike against Iran. The leader of this effort is Sheldon Adelson. The man is a force of nature and not to be underestimated in any way.
Adelson writes checks in $30 Million increments to politicians he likes. When organizations he supports don’t do what he wants he starts new organizations that will. He has moved conservative poltics in both Israel and the US to the Right on national security matters. In the future, textbooks on Political Science will be divided into two parts: Before Adelson and After Adelson. He is that impactful. Seriously.
When the history of the first thirteen months of the Trump Presidency (up to February 22, 2018) is written these people will have major roles:
Donald Trump. (aka The Moron)
Rupert Murdoch. (aka Trump’s Indispensable Man)
Benjamin Netanyahu. (aka The Insufferable One )
Sheldon Adelson. (aka The Boss Of Bosses)
Jared Kushner. (aka Uriah Creep)
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. (aka The Eagle Scout)
Sen. Tom Cotton. (aka Robespierre)
CIA Director Mike Pompeo. (aka Jaba The Hut)
Mike Flynn. (aka Dr. Strangelove)
Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller. (aka The Wild Card and The Last Best Hope)
Here’s my assessment on how these two wars are going to play out in the period between now and Trump’s thirteen month anniversary…Feb. 22, 2018.
The people who are sympathetic to building a case for Iranian misbehavior and, ultimately, a “preemptive” war in Iran (Kushner, Netanyahu and Adelson) are not happy with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Tillerson was an Eagle Scout. That means something. Seriously. They don’t view him as a reliable warmonger. They’re probably right. If the facts to justify military action aren’t there, Tillerson won’t pretend that they are.
The “preemptive warriors” would like to slip CIA Director Mike Pompeo into Tillerson’s job. Pompeo is very smart and very ambitious. The CIA Director’s job is to report the facts to policy makers. Pompeo would love to paint on a bigger canvas and lay the foundation for a Presidential run. To complete the switcheroo, the “bombs away” crowd would like to slot certifiably strange Senator Tom Cotton into the CIA. The leaks indicate this will happen. I think they underestimate Rex Tillerson. He’s capable of surprising everyone planning his departure.
I’m sure it’s occurred to Adelson and Netanyahu that getting too close to Trump has risk. Is he a dependable ally? Is he capable of turning on them to save his his own hide if the wheels come off? Also, what about Mueller…how much does he know from surveillance of Kushner? Who has Kushner been talking to and what has he been saying? It’s entirely possible that Mueller is in possession of information that is explosive beyond the Russian Collusion matter. Maybe some information on Kushner’s machinations with the Saudis…who, according to the “bombs away” crowd, are our new best friends forever.
Sept. 11, 2001? That’s just so yesterday. The Saudis don’t like Iran.That, by itself, makes them positively adorable…to some. So adorable they’ll probably come up with the idea that we should fight the Iranians to protect the Saudis. Screwy? Very.
Is Trump capable of starting an unnecessary war to save himself politically? I think not…but I thought Hillary would win easy. Trump still listens to Steve Bannon…they say Bannon is a fascinating conversationalist. How about Mueller? Would Trump risk firing him and if he did how would Mueller react? It’s within the realm of possibility that Mueller would go public with what he knows. In fact, he would probably view it as his duty to do so. Would he lead a movement? Probably not, but if he did we could do a lot worse.
Who else is out there with guts and energy? Maybe someone with experience in grass roots community organizing. Didn’t Barack Obama do some of that stuff?
I think he did.
Comments are welcome at tomc[at]wednesdayswars[dot]com. Comments will be addressed in subsequent posts.